That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...
538's final presidential election forecast. Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538 And that's why we've been saying the race isn't necessarily going to be close just because the polls are.
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